New Scientist Recommends Martindale Roulette System

New Scientist has recently investigated the use of mathematics in gambling strategies and somewhat surprisingly has recommended the use of Martingale betting systems in roulette.

Although the journal is not peer reviewed and as such does not qualify as a scientific journal in the sense that it publishes original research, it does have a very high reputation amongst scientists and non-scientists alike. Recently the magazine has met with some criticism regarding its recent trend to over-hype some scientific issues with the aim of increasing its appeal to non-technical readers. In the latest issue it has looked at the relationship between gambling and mathematics and has reached some startling, and totally incorrect, conclusions.

The article in question was written by Helen Tomson, who happens to be the magazine's careers editor. She was assisted by Edward Thorpe, the famous gambler and author of ‘Beat the Dealer' which described the subtle art of card counting at Blackjack. The author correctly points out that in the game of roulette the outcome of each spin of the wheel is a random event and that there is an equal chance of red coming up as black even if the last twenty spins have been black. But she then goes on to tell her readers that probability theory can be used to ensure that a profit is made.

What she advocates is the Martindale system, which is a progressive gambling system that has resulted in the ruin of many who have placed their faith in it. In her version of the system she advocates always betting on the same colour and, if it loses, doubling the bet next time. She points out that eventually you are bound to win.

Although she uses an example where seven successive losses means placing a stake of £1280 on the next spin, and suggests that caution is needed, she fails to show that on her first example of twenty spins the next stake would be a staggering £10,485,760 in order to win back the original £10, clearly an absurdity.

New Scientist should know better. Roulette is an entertaining game that we can sometimes win if we are lucky. Advocating Martindale as an example of where mathematics can provide a winning strategy is very misleading.

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