Mortgage Interest Rates Continue to Move Up

After rising drastically last week fixed mortgage interest rates moved up slightly this week. 30 Year notes moved from 6.42 to 6.45 and 15 Year notes moved from 6.02 to 6.04. ARMS on the other hand rose a decent amount. 5 Year Arms rose from 5.89 to 5.99 while 1 Year Arms rose from 5.19 to 5.27.

30 Year mortgage rates have been on a steady rise having risen for the last straight 6 weeks. Overall 15 Year Fixed and 5 Year Arms have been rising. The only mortgage product that has remained relatively flat over the last 6 weeks is the 1 Year Arm. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

So rates are one thing but what does this translate into for a mortgage payment. Using our free mortgage calculator lets run the numbers on a 200k loan based on todays rates. We also put in what the mortgage would be a week and a month ago based on past rates.

June 26th
30-yr $1257.56
15-yr $1692.03
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1106.88

June 19th
30-yr $1253.60
15-yr $1689.87
5-yr ARM $1184.99
1-yr ARM $1096.98

May 29th
30-yr $1209.4
15-yr $1651.19
5-yr ARM $1150.68
1-yr ARM $1100.69

So looking at the numbers above one would have saved almost $50 by getting a 30 Year loan a month ago compared to today. In contrast a mortgage on a 1 Year Arm has remained relatively constant only move up $6 compared to a year ago. Why Banks would want to promote 1 Year Arms is anyone's guess since its a riskier product that more frequently leads to foreclosures. Based on the other recent decisions by banks it would not be a bad assumption to assume banks have no idea what they are doing this point.

At this point getting a 5 Year loan doesn't really seem worth it compared to getting a 30 Year loan since the cost savings is not that high (5%). On the other hand if you plan on keeping the property for a short period of time a 1 Year loan seems attractive considering the cost savings (12%).

So as always the next question is what rates are going to be doing over the next month. In the absence of future rate cuts its unlikely that rates will go down very much. Additionally, since rates have risen over the last few week it seems that banks are becoming more satisfied with the current rate spread between the FED and current mortgage rates. So one would expect rates to remain flat or have a small rise through the rest of the summer.

Ki is a realtor in Austin. His site has information on mortgage rates trends along with a mortgage rates widget