Economist recognises buy-to-let's long-term strength

After all the recent negative press about buy-to-let in the UK, the industry may be in better shape than some imagine, it seems.

This news may not be much of a revelation to those who have seen the optimistic outlooks presented by the recent surveys from Bradford and Bingley, Alliance & Leicester and the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (Arla), all of which have shown high levels of investor optimism. Arla's survey showed that the average investment lasts 16.7 years. Alliance & Leicester came up with the even longer figure of 18 years for the nine out of ten who wanted to keep their portfolio for longer than a decade.

Now, however, it is not just the investors themselves who have revealed their optimism. In the announcement by Nationwide of its latest monthly house price index, which showed a 0.1 per cent drop in January, senior economist Martin Gahbaur said: "We do not believe that the long-term fundamentals of buy-to-let are necessarily as poor as recent commentary may suggest."

The phrase long-term, of course, is instructive. The theme has been repeated time and again by those who carried out the surveys, with examples such as the comments by Alliance & Leicester head of specialist mortgages Jeremy Claridge, who, responding to last month's survey, said: "It is clear the buy-to-let property market is still healthy for longstanding landlords, especially for those in the south-east of the country."

What Mr Ghabauer did was back up this theme with an economist's analysis that confirmed what so many had already concluded - that the market was not so good for short-term investors, but sound for those with a long-term plan. Speaking of the lower yields that the present market may offer, he said: "While such concerns are certainly relevant, they are much more of a factor for those with a short investment horizon rather than for those in it for the long term. A property investor planning to hold the investment over a long period will benefit from future rental growth and is in a better position to ride out temporary periods of weak capital gains."

Just as importantly, Mr Gahbauer recognised the trend for the average investor to be in the latter group rather than the former. Noting the rise of alternative investment strategies after a series of blows to confidence in traditional pension funds between 2001 and 2003, he concluded: "Many investors are motivated by longer-term retirement planning rather than the expectation of making a quick gain. If true, there are reasons to be more sanguine about buy-to-let than suggested by recent headlines."

What Mr Gahbauer is saying may simply be adding flesh to the bones of what is already known. But as well as this, there are indications that there is still growth in buy-to-let in many locations. For instance, Irene Thomas, operations manager at Auction Finance in Manchester, told the Manchester Evening News: "In the rental market we continue to see a steady increase in the number of buy-to-let investors." Such a trend suggests sanguine is the least one might be about the prospects for buy-to-let.

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Jim Barnaby is a real estate investment broker and successful property investment adviser delivering research and selected UK and overseas property investment solutions with experience in spanish properties, french property investment, German property, Cyprus holiday homes, Property in Cape Verde, German property investment, cape verde property buy to let property