The Future of the Luxury Housing Market in New York City

For a little over a year now, the strength of the New York City real
estate market has been a stark contrast to the national market. As
things worsened across the country, the news was either great or just
OK for New York City.

As the market finally started to show signs of its own mortality towards
the end of 2007, the overall numbers were still fairly positive. The
luxury housing market was propping the rest of the city's market up.
Most luxury markets are typically well-removed from the business cycle,
so it came as little surprise that, even in the wake of the financial
market's problems, the luxury apartment market held up well against
the national downturn.

What was a surprise however, was just how strongly the market performed.
Several new buildings full of luxury Manhattan
apartments opened, and
average prices for the luxury market continued to climb.

As the economy sinks further into a recession, and as the news of
Bear Stern's demise spreads, worries are beginning to mount over just
how long the luxury New York apartment market can keep it up.

Market activity, by most accounts, has slowed over the past quarter
or so, though prices have not dropped. Pricing in housing markets
often follows changes in the volume of activity, even in the luxury
market.

Weighed against this change, however, is the weak dollar, which has
dramatically increased foreign demand for luxury New
York City apartments.
In addition, the strong end-of-the-year bonus season will continue
to bolster the spending plans of wealthy families in the city throughout
much of the year.

With supply and demand both in relatively strong places, it is difficult
to see a severe drop off in prices in the luxury market. For instance,
the credit crunch, for instance, has led many banks to tighten their
lending standards, according to a recent study by the Federal Reserve.
However, few, if any, of those looking to purchase luxury New York
apartments do not have sufficient credit or collateral to secure a
loan.

That's not to say interest rates will not increase, even in the wake
of the Fed's strong interest rate cuts. But it is unlikely that an
increase in rates will dramatically harm demand for housing among the
wealthiest members of the world's richest city.
The bottom line: If Bear Sterns' fate is shared by other major Wall
Street firms, then prices will begin to fall significantly in the luxury
New York apartment market. However, if such total calamity can be avoided,
then the market should continue to perform strongly.

Nicholas Adams Judge is a freelance writer specializing in business, politics
and economics. He holds a B.A. in political science and will begin his PhD studies
in political economy and public opinion next fall. He has studied economics and
political science at a number of different institutions, both here and in the
U.K.

Manhattan Apartments