The rate that won't wait

With the Bank of England monetary policy committee (MPC) due to meet next week to discuss interest rate policy, some may see the outcome as being quite obvious. With the property market at a fairly low ebb and wider economic concerns there will be no shortage of those seeking a rate cut, although the inflationary pressures present mean that, in the words of the Bank's governor Mervyn King this week, there is a "difficult balancing act" to be performed.

In recent months, that act appears to have been accomplished by hopping from one side to another, with emphatic and decisive votes for the prevailing decision on the base rate. In December all nine supported the trimming from 5.75 per cent to 5.5 per cent. In January eight of the nine voted for a cut. Come February and the vote was unanimously in favour of a cut again, the final eight-to-one figure only occurring because David Blanchflower, the one supporter of a reduction in January, had supported a 0.5 per cent cut.

With March producing a clear seven to two vote for no change (Mr Blanchflower again voted for a lower rate, being joined by John Gieve), the voting pattern may appear to be about to revert to a firm vote in favour of a cut. Those hoping to see something that may boost the property market following the temporary withdrawal of mortgage products by lenders such as First Direct and the Co-operative Bank will certainly wish this pattern to continue.

However, not all economists see this as so clear cut. The Adfero poll of eight experts and institutions revealed that there were somewhat varying opinions, although none suggested the base rate would last at its present level beyond May. Six of the eight interviewed tipped an April cut, but the matter was not one of clear certainty for all.

In the case of those who expect a reduction, for example, Richard Snook for the Centre for Economic and Business Research suggested the chance of an April move was 80 per cent. For Nationwide it was less at 60 per cent. Equally, while HSBC was clear in its forecast that the next shaving of the rate would be in May, Lloyds TSB senior economist Jeavon Lolay was not so certain.

He said: "With May we just feel it's slightly more favourable, because it's timed with the Bank of England's latest inflation report. But we wouldn't be too surprised if they did go down in April, it's a very close decision."

Yet while there is a little uncertainty about the timing of the next mortgage interest rate cut, the expectation that there will be one soon could be one reassuring factor for those concerned with investing in property. Another may be the belief of David Smith, the economics editor for the Sunday Times, that the notion being circulated in some quarters that a housing crash is likely and widespread negative equity a serious prospect is considerably exaggerated.

Addressing the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) Cymru conference in Cardiff, Mr Smith warned that it would be wrong to "over-do the gloom". Noting the way house prices had tripled in the last decade, he added: "House prices would have to fall quite a lot before we saw the return of negative equity."

So while an mortgage interest rate reduction may be likely but not certain next week, perhaps the message which really needs to be thought about is that the present downturn, while representing a shift from the recent years of plenty, may be a long way removed from the slide into calamity that some have predicted.

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Jim Barnaby is a real estate investment broker and successful property investment adviser delivering research and selected UK and overseas property investment solutions with experience in spanish properties, french property investment, German property, Cyprus holiday homes, Property in Cape Verde, German property investment, cape verde property buy to let property