http://www.articletrader.com/ Articles at ArticleTrader en-us http://www.articletrader.com/finance/taxes/year-end-investment-ideas-and-tax-strategies.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/taxes/year-end-investment-ideas-and-tax-strategies.html Fri, 22 Dec 2006 00:00:00 -0600
Of course that's ridiculous, but isn't it about the same as the financial community's "Conventional Wisdom" (CW) for year-end tax planning? What about the long-term nature of investing, or the merits of that investment they felt so strongly about in July? What are their motivations, and what discipline thought up these strategies in the first place?

Clearly there are many questions that require answers, but as investors, it should be crystal clear that the object of the investment exercise is to make money... just as much as possible, quickly, legally, and within a low risk environment. The faster it comes in, the more effectively it can be compounded. Otherwise, wouldn't the "CW" be to find as many downers as uppers so that there are no tax consequences? Wouldn't Zero Taxable Gain Investing be the only "smart" investment strategy? A December, 2004 New York Times Money Section article actually suggested that Investment Professionals had an obligation to lose money for clients in order to reduce the tax burden.

Your Financial Professional's perspective may produce smart tax advice but only professional investors (not accountants, attorneys, stockbrokers, financial planners, advisors in general) should be called upon for acceptable investment advice. CPAs may look smarter if you have a lower tax liability, but many of them go too far with a calendar year focus that ignores the realities of an emotional and cyclical investment environment. Take last year's Merck for example. It has nearly doubled in Market Value since you were told to sell it last November... who'da thunk it! Why didn't you buy more (of this and many other high quality losers) instead of selling? Fortunately, not all professionals are into losing money. In fact, in nearly thirty years of dealing with hundreds of Accountants and other advisors, not even a handful have suggested that clients should take losses on fundamentally sound securities, Equity or Fixed Income. Just think if you had taken your dot.com profits in '99, purchased the downtrodden profit making companies of the time, and paid the ugly taxes. The value companies didn't crash. They've rallied for nearly seven years!

The key issue in considering a capital loss is the economic viability of the investment... not your tax situation! A key element of The Working Capital Model (for investment portfolio management) is to eliminate the weakest security in a portfolio every time the Market Value of the portfolio establishes a significantly new "All Time High" profit level (an ATH). My definitions may be different than those you are used to: (1) Profit = Total Market Value - Net Portfolio Investment, (2) A "weak" security is a stock that is no longer rated Investment Grade by S & P, or no longer traded on the NYSE, or no longer dividend paying, or no longer profitable. Income securities whose payout has fallen to way below average (or risen to an unsustainable level) could also be culled at an ATH. Securities that have fallen considerably in Market Value for no apparent reason (other than recent news or changing interest rate expectations) are referred to lovingly as "Investment Opportunities". This is what you look for while trying to reinvest your profits... like last year's MRK. By the way, switching from the strong asset class to the weaker one as a "hedging strategy" or vice versa (as a greed motivated speculation) is simply an attempt at "market timing", not a "sophisticated" or "savvy" adjustment to your asset allocation. Asset Allocation is always a function of personal factors and never a function of asset class (Equities and Income Generators) directional speculation.

So what happens if a new portfolio ATH is achieved in February or August instead of in November or December? (Note that the financial community only preaches tax loss strategies during the last calendar quarter.) Should you unload all the weak issues at the same time, even those purchased just a few months ago? Management of your portfolio requires the disciplined application of consistent rules and guidelines, and every manager will develop his or her own style. But in a high quality, properly diversified, income generating portfolio, (1) the number of weak issues will generally be small and (2) the probability of escaping with only a minimal loss very real. Keep in mind two basic investment axioms: There is no such thing as a bad profit, regardless of the tax implications; and no matter how you may rationalize, there's no such thing as a good loss. So, sure, if a loss should be taken due to an ATH in February, bite the bullet on the one security (only one) with the declining fundamentals (A Merrill Lynch/CNN/CFP opinion is not a fundamental.) If there are none, good job!

Profits are the holy grail of investing. Few people will admit just how infrequently they have experienced them or, conversely, just how frequently they have watched them disappear beneath the waves of a correction. (Like gamblers retuning from Vegas... no one ever seems to lose!) Similarly, most financial professionals will counsel their charges to let their profits run, particularly around year-end. Surely, speaketh the CW prophets, these profits will hang around until next year, thus deferring those terrible taxes! (Worked real well at year-end '99, you'll recall.) Don't think for a moment that anyone knows what will happen this time around the rally pole, particularly in those ridiculously priced ETFs, which are put together with the same kind of spit and duct tape used for the dot.coms. Always take your profits too soon, because you can't get poor that way!

First thing Monday morning I'm going to: (1) Call my accountant to tell him that I'm going to help him reduce his tax burden by not paying him, (2) continue to view the Investment process in cyclical rather than calendar terms, (3) limit my tax liability by how I invest, not by taking unnecessary losses, (4) continue to make as much money as possible, as quickly and safely as possible, and (5) contact the media, my political representatives, and anyone else I can think of that will help in the fight to abolish the taxation of all investment and retirement income.


--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/investment-scandals-and-scams-whats-next.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/investment-scandals-and-scams-whats-next.html Fri, 22 Dec 2006 00:00:00 -0600

Plain vanilla fraud and theft are less worrisome to me than situations where the general acceptance of misinformation or "business as usual" practices allows inherently bad product ideas and blatant mismanagement to become accepted by regulatory authorities, financial professionals, and myopically gullible consumers. Here are some candidates for future "Blockbuster Scandal Awards" (B S Awards, if you will): Variable Life Insurance & Annuities, Wrap Fee Managed Investment Accounts, Portfolio Window Dressing, Asset Allocation Mutual Funds, and Obscene Executive Compensation.


1) Variable Insurance and Annuities: Variable products are a relatively new thing in the insurance industry, circa 1980 or so. Before that, the conventional wisdom labeled the Shock Market much too risky for Life Insurance Policy and Annuity Contract guaranteed benefits. In fact, these benefits had been "guaranteed" for so long that it became a generic expectation of anyone in the market for either. So why did the State Insurance departments cave in to the Variable Product lobby? And what is not emphasized as these products are marketed to potential insureds and annuitants?


As if the 8% sales commission on Straight Life Annuities wasn't enough, the addition of Mutual Fund bonuses made the Variable Annuity irresistible... to financial professionals. Similarly, this product is so lucrative for the companies that they manipulate their rates to become more competitive. Since the introduction of variable benefits, there have been more insurance company failures and scandals, and not just a few disappointed recipients of reduced annuity payments. What's in your retirement plan?


2)Wrap Fee Investment Accounts: From the very beginnings of wealth, the very wealthy employed Investment Managers to protect and to grow their portfolios. Most Investment Managers had just a few huge clients that they tended to while the rest of the fledging financial industry focused on property protection and estate creation through life insurance. Most of today's (salaried) Investment Managers are employed by Financial Institutions to supervise thousands of Mutual Funds for millions of investors of all financial shapes and sizes. There are more Equity Mutual Funds than there are individual Equities on the New York Stock Exchange. Most investors today will employ many Investment Managers and never actually speak to any of them.


Enter the personally managed investment portfolio product offered by most major Financial Institutions. For a single fee, you receive the personal services of a professional Investment Manager, and a portfolio specifically designed for you. Except, of course, that you get neither. You get precisely the same portfolio as everybody else, and all at once regardless of price... a Mutual Fund with individual statements. But of course, you can speak to the manager any time you like, change your asset allocation, set aside a reserve for an upcoming expenditure, etc. Yeah, sure you can!

Note that "Flat Fee" managed accounts are quite different and may actually be separately and personally managed.


3)Portfolio Window Dressing: Every quarter, every year, we hear about the adjustments that portfolio managers are making as they attempt to look smart to their largest clients. Now in a discipline (Investing) that they all officially recognize as a long-term commitment to some specific strategy or plan, why do the Masters of the Universe spend so much time manipulating their short-term performance numbers? And why is this considered business as usual instead of common fraud?


4)Asset Allocation Mutual Funds: I look at Asset Allocation a bit differently than most professionals seem to and I regulate and monitor a portfolio's structure using the cost basis of securities rather than their Market Value. But how, logically, can a one-size-fits-all Mutual Fund be the right mix for all investors? Here's a definition found on the Internet: "A mutual fund that rotates among stocks, bonds, and money market securities to maximize return on investment and minimize risk". And a definition of Asset Allocation from a similar source: "The practice of distributing a certain percentage of a portfolio between different types of investment assets, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, cash, real estate, options, etc. By diversifying an individual's asset base, one hopes to create a favorable risk/reward ratio for a portfolio".


In reality, Asset Allocation is a structure-planning tool that determines what percentage of an Investment Portfolio is to be invested for Growth in Equity securities and what percentage is to be invested for income production. The proper allocation is a function of the investor's age, marital status, financial position, employment status, retirement plans, expenditure needs, risk tolerance, family responsibilities, etc. Diversification occurs within the two (just two) asset classes. One size fits all... who's kidding whom?


5) Corporate Executive Compensation: I strongly believe that everyone has the right to become filthy rich, legally of course. I respect anyone who gets there honestly because their success creates jobs, opportunities, wealth, and a higher standard of living for everyone. But, once they sell shares of their successful enterprises to the public, they have a responsibility to share future profits and growth. Obscene executive suite compensation (right down to the chauffeured limousines) is simply stealing from shareholders.


With every new Scandal, a voracious Media and a hypocritical Congress exacerbate the fear of shocked investors and call for more regulation of the very entities whose success, freedom, viability, and competitiveness they should be nurturing. Ironically, politicians are always the most outspoken critics... probably because of their familiarity with cover-ups and improprieties. But no one ever questions the integrity of the Financial Institutions that invent, produce, price, and promote products and services that do far more long-term harm than the few (albeit serious and sensational) incidents of corporate wrong doing.

Four of the five candidates for this year's Blockbuster Scandal (B S) Award were created on Wall Street. The fifth is ignored by it. Which one bothers you most?


--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"



Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/asset-allocation-investment-management-without-mutual-funds.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/asset-allocation-investment-management-without-mutual-funds.html Mon, 02 Oct 2006 00:00:00 -0500

* A viable Investment Program begins with the private development of an Investment Plan. The first step is the identification of personal goals and objectives and a time frame for goal achievement. The end result should be a near autopilot, long-term and increasing, retirement income. Asset Allocation is used to structure the portfolio so that it operates in a goal directed manner. The finished Plan must be flexible in design, based upon reasonable expectations, simple in structure and operation, and easy to supervise.

* Use a "cost based" Asset Allocation Model. Although most of the Investment World operates on a Market Value basis for everything from performance analysis to Asset Allocation and Diversification decision modeling, you will improve your long-term results and stay within your allocation and diversification guidelines better by using a system based upon Working Capital. This widely unknown Asset Allocation "model" takes the hype out of daily stock market reporting and keeps the income investor's focus on appropriate statistics.

* Control your emotions, among other things. Clearly, fear and greed are the two that require the most control in the investment environment... particularly in these days of a reckless media, Internet empowered scam merchants, high-speed information gathering/processing, and cheap personalized trading capabilities. Love and hate need to be dealt with as well, but there are fewer out-of-body influences on these. Only strictly disciplined decision makers need apply for your Investment Management position... and you may not be the ideal candidate. Investment Management is a continual responsibility, not a weekend and occasional evenings avocation.

* Avoid hindsightful analysis, and uninformed (or salesperson) criticism. It is painfully comical how hindsight has taken over in our society... in sports, finance, politics, and the professions, everywhere... everyone you hear is second-guessing and finger pointing. No one is willing to take responsibility for their own actions and everyone is willing to sue whoever coulda', woulda' or shoulda' prevented whatever happened. Investors cannot afford to be Little League crybabies. Make one of the three basic decisions (which are?) and don't look back. No person or program can predict the future, and your portfolio requires management today. The playing field for the investment game is uncertainty.

* Establish a profit-taking target for every security you purchase. The purpose of investing is to make more money than you could in a guaranteed, non-negotiable instrument. This larger money making expectation comes with an assumption of some form of risk... there are several, and its "in there" in all investments. In Equities, set a reasonable profit target and take less if you can get it quickly. With income investments, never say no to a profit equal to a year's income, or 10% if you like round numbers. There are always new investment opportunities, and there is no such thing as a bad profit... or a good loss.

* Examine Market Value numbers at intelligent intervals. Frequent examination is stressful and non-productive. There are no averages or indices that compare with a properly diversified Investment Portfolio, particularly if your Equity selections are screened for Quality and Income. Investing is a long-term endeavor, and neither Shock(sic) Market symbols nor current yields operate on a calendar year schedule. Look at market peaks and troughs over significant time periods that include "cycles"... and do separate your analysis by class.

* Avoid what the crowd is doing and shun investment products. Consumers buy products; Investors buy securities. The crowd is driven by the very emotions that you must learn to control. Stay focused on your plan; analyze your annual income and trading statistics. Buy and hold creates more real tax problems than real millionaires, and gimmicks and fads last just slightly longer than spring fashions. Always buy good stuff on bad news and sell into good news announcements.

* Don't try to save the world with your investment decisions. Never limit your investment opportunities artificially. Votes work better when it comes to changing your world, and corporations should not be the targets of your political hates... get rid of incumbents, state and local, until there are changes in the tax code, social security, tort law, environmental issues, etc. In the meantime, invest with your head, not your heart. The business of a capitalist society is...

* Keep in mind that you need Income to pay the bills, and that your cost of living in retirement will be higher than you think. If you insist on some income from every Equity security you ever own, and beat-the-bank income from income securities, you will obtain two important things: An annually increasing cash flow that will rise at a rate greater than most normal inflation rates, and a higher quality investment portfolio for better long-term investment performance. (If you use a cost based Asset Allocation model with at least 30% invested in income securities and no open end Mutual Funds or Index ETFs.) Never settle for tiny short-term yields or get hooked on those that are unsustainably high.

* Investing is not a competitive event, ever. You don't need to beat the market. You need to accomplish a set of personalized goals. Not even your twin's portfolio should be the same as yours. The faster you run, the less likely it is that you will succeed over time. Big risks, foolproof gimmicks, and exotic computer programs occasion more failures than success stories. Remember the Investment gods? They created Stocks and Bonds... only Stocks and Bonds!

* Avoid Unrealized Gains, Embrace Volatility, Increase Annual Income, and remember that all key investment moments are only visible in rear view mirrors. Most unrealized gains become Schedule D realized losses. As of today there has never been a correction (rally) that has not succumbed to the next rally (correction). Only an increasing income level can beat back inflation... a bigger market value number just doesn't do it.

Perge'




--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.comhttp://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.comProfessional Portfolio Management since 1979Author of: \"The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read\", and \"A Millionaire\'s Secret Investment Strategy\"

Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/society/politics/what-social-security-trust-fund-fire-the-politicians.html http://www.articletrader.com/society/politics/what-social-security-trust-fund-fire-the-politicians.html Thu, 24 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0500
The most obvious explanation is politics, but we're running out of time for finger pointing, and Social Security is solvable in a surprisingly painless manner. It will require a whole new approach that uses old ideas and institutions in ways that most of us have pretty much given up on. As hopeless as the Bush Administration's Nicotine Patch for Social Security would have been, it pointed in the right direction. Now don't hit DELETE when I refer to "privatization", or when I mention one of my own most hated financial products, the "annuity". Both are needed to permanently fix the Social Security mess, to get it away from people who are neither managers nor investment specialists, and to make the whole system work more economically. The purpose of this article is to get you to think about it... and to elect a hero with the guts to fix it. Unfortunately, Joe DiMaggio has left the building!

Are you surprised that there is no "Social Security Trust Fund"... no investments and no Investment Managers? This is a gigantic Government designed and controlled Ponzi scheme that has worked incredibly well in spite of congressional tinkering and prohibitively high cost. There was always a tax plan for funding the benefits, but never an Investment Plan. And as difficult as it is for me to admit, no sophisticated Investment Plan is really necessary. We just need a new (reduced) contribution plan, one that isn't designed to fund every politically sensitive entitlement that compromises itself down the aisle. We need a simplified benefit structure that supplements privately funded (untaxed) retirement programs. [Healthcare just has to be a separate issue, perhaps an actual (managed) Trust Fund, and certainly something that should not be funded by private citizens until there is meaningful tort reform in this country.] Pshew! Back to the point... We can eliminate all the unnecessary bells and whistles simply by mandating personalized benefit funding. Let the politicians deal with homeland security while the private sector deals with things financial.

After the repeal of the Social Security tax and implementation of mandated Individual Retirement Plan Contributions, the Social Security bureaucracy will retain several important functions: 1) Qualifying private sector companies and licensing them to provide Social Security Retirement Income Annuities (SSRIAs). Thousands of providers will be needed, but only, fixed income experienced, profitable companies need apply. 2) Developing a computerized system for participant/provider matching... inspired randomness is essential. 3) Proactive monitoring of compliance with the minimal rules, installation of fraud detection systems, and investigation of all violations by providers, participants, and retirees, 4) Keeping the plan sacred, simple, and principally unchanged by future legislation. The plan must be kept: simple and profitable for providers; painless and visible to participants; timely and comprehensible to retirees.

The SSRIA is a new and improved version of the ancient Deferred Fixed Annuity Contract... a boring but guaranteed retirement benefit vehicle, funded by both mandated and voluntary payroll deductions, with a whole bunch of new wrinkles that make it an ideal Social Security replacement program. For example, and unlike existing annuity contracts: 1) Participants will be allocated to "qualified SSRIA providers" so there will be no sales commissions, no business acquisition or retention costs, no advertising expenses, etc. 2) All SSRIA contracts (regardless of provider) will contain the same terms, interest guarantees, retirement benefit choices, and pre-retirement death benefits, thus eliminating any incentives for internal fraud and manipulation of statistics. 3) Qualified providers will establish separate subsidiaries to manage and control SSRIA operations and to assure that only high quality, income securities are used to fund future benefits. 4) All qualified providers will use the same mortality, investment earnings and expense assumptions, and all benefits will be fully guaranteed by the parent corporations.

The SSRIA is a supplemental retirement program, funded by a much smaller, yet flexible, payroll deduction, and it is designed to be the foundation of a retiree's total retirement package... a benefit floor. Participants will choose (annually, for the following year) to deposit from the required 2% up to a maximum 4% of their Pre-Tax Income to their personal SSRIA, a contract that will follow them everywhere, from employer to employer, throughout their working years. Before retirement, a death benefit equal to the full cash value of the contract will be paid to the designated beneficiary. At retirement, participants can elect either a Life Annuity or a Joint & 50% Survivor Annuity. No variable plans of any kind will ever be allowed; there will be no loan privileges, withdrawals, or dividends. Providers are expected to make a reasonable profit, which will ultimately be determined by their operating and investing abilities... hmmm, I smell capitalism.

Employer sponsored benefit programs and individual savings and investments are expected to make up the bulk of private retirement programs. The SSRIA will assure that everyone has something, but individual savings and retirement plans, both company sponsored and personally funded, will be encouraged by new IRS policy. No retirement income, regardless of source will be subject to income taxation! Neither employers nor self-employed persons will be required to make matching contributions of any kind to employee SSRIAs. However, they will be encouraged to use their improved cash flow to increase employment or to reduce prices, perhaps by a new system that will reduce their corporate income tax obligations as a reward for boosting the economy. Similarly, billions of dollars of discretionary spendable income will find its way back into the economy from consumers whose payroll deductions have been slashed deservedly.

Subsequent articles will deal with: SSRIA Providers, Participation Rules, Transitioning the Change at Four Levels, and Dealing with the Obscenely Overpaid.


--



Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/real-estate/reits-and-cefs-the-kiss-principal-applied-to-real-estate.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/real-estate/reits-and-cefs-the-kiss-principal-applied-to-real-estate.html Thu, 10 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0500
If you thought that Real Estate was out of your investment reach because of limited funds, or minimal personal experience, you were selling yourself short. All of the basic types of Real Estate Investing are available through CEFs (Closed End Funds) and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and both can be purchased in the same manner as any common stock. And for me, this has always been their (CEFs and REITs) single most attractive feature! You can own a piece of the action without the big commitment of time and resources. You can take advantage of changes in the Real Estate Market Cycle in precisely the same manner as you can deal with the volatility and fluctuations in the Stock and Fixed Income Markets.

Real Estate CEFs and REITs are obviously safer investments than outright purchases of Shopping Centers and Apartment Complexes. They are also somewhat less risky than owning the common stock of individual Real Estate companies. The size of the numbers may be less exciting, but the net income and capital gains potential are comparable and the turnover rate much more impressive. Both methods (of participation in the Real Estate market) should be considered as you add to your investment portfolio... but to which Asset Allocation "bucket"? I've always included REITs and Real Estate CEFs in the Fixed Income bucket while the common stock of a plain vanilla Real Estate Company would properly fit within the Equity portion. When adding Equities of any kind to your portfolio, you should avoid the standard "Mob Popularity and Greed" model and select only S & P, B+ or better, rated stocks that pay dividends (regardless of size) and that are priced at least 20% below their 52 week high. After a huge rally in any market, I would be even more selective than that from a percentage standpoint, and I would buy about one-half the normal position to facilitate average cost reduction later. You must establish a reasonable profit-taking target on any investment. Real Estate is no exception. No matter what the investment, Virginia, the longer and stronger the rally, the steeper and faster the correction is likely to be.

On the Income side of the portfolio, make sure that you look at a lot of REITs and even more CEFs of various kinds to get a feel for the levels of income they produce. REITs must pay out a certain percentage of their earnings, but CEFs may not have the same restriction. I believe that either can be "leveraged", which simply means that management may choose to borrow some of the money that they invest. Leverage is not a four-letter word when used properly, and (in my opinion) it is more likely to help your results than it is to hurt them. It's always a good practice to stay within the normal income range, assuming that there is either a risk or a management reason for the highest and lowest yields, respectively. Be careful not to create a poorly diversified income portfolio. Bonds, Preferred Stocks, Mortgages, etc. deserve your attention as well and should be represented. Monthly income is available and more attractive than any other.

The major distinction between the two types of investing needs some re-emphasis. When purchasing stock in a Real Estate company (or any other company), your main objective should be to sell the stock for a reasonable profit as quickly as possible. You will then select some other stock and repeat the process. It is likely that you will return to the same companies over and over again, and you are the manager... any dividend income is gravy. When purchasing a REIT or a Real Estate CEF, you are depending on the managers of these entities to generate income and capital gains and to pass it on to you every month, recognizing that the actual amount may vary slightly over time. You have the bonus capability either of selling the REIT or CEF shares when they rise to an acceptable profit level (more gravy), or of buying more shares to increase your income level. The distinctions (benefits?) of this form of Real Estate Investing vs. ownership of the properties themselves should be clear as well.

No attorneys; no debt; no maintenance; no problem.


--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/stock-market-window-dressing-the-art-of-looking-smart.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/stock-market-window-dressing-the-art-of-looking-smart.html Thu, 20 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0500

There are at least three forms of Window Dressing, none of which should make you particularly happy and all of which should make you question the integrity of organizations that either authorize, implement, or condone their use. The better-known variety involves the culling from portfolios of stocks with significant losses and replacing them with shares of companies whose shares have been the most popular during recent months. Not only does this practice make the managers look smarter on reports sent to major clients, it also makes Mutual Fund performance numbers appear significantly more attractive to prospective "fund switchers". On the sell side of the ledger, prices of the weakest performing stocks are pushed down even further. Obviously, all fund managements will take part in the ritual if they choose to survive. This form of window dressing is, by most definitions, neither investing nor speculating. But no one seems to care about the ethics, the legality, or the fact that this "Buy High, Sell Low" picture is being painted with your Mutual Fund palette.


A more subtle form of Window Dressing takes place throughout the calendar quarter, but is "unwound" before the portfolio's Quarterly Reports reach the glossies. In this less prevalent (but even more fraudulent) variety, the managers invest in securities that are clearly out of sync with the fund's published investment policy during a period when their particular specialty has fallen from grace with the gurus. For example, adding commodity ETFs, or popular emerging country issues to a Large Cap Value Fund, etc. Profits are taken before the Quarter Ends so that the fund's holdings report remains uncompromised, but with enhanced quarterly results. A third form of Window Dressing is referred to as "survivorship", but it impacts Mutual Fund investors alone while the others undermine the information used by (and the market performance of) individual security investors. You may want to research it.


I cannot understand why the media reports so superficially on these "business as usual" practices. Perhaps ninety percent of the price movement in the equity markets is the result of institutional trading, and institutional money managers seem to be more concerned with politics and marketing than they are with investing. They are trying to impress their major clients with their brilliance by reporting ownership of all the hot tickets and none of the major losers. At the same time, they are manipulating the performance statistics contained in their promotional materials. They have made "Buy High, Sell Low" the accepted investment strategy of the Mutual Fund industry. Meanwhile, individual security investors receive inaccurate signals and incur collateral losses by moving in the wrong direction.


From an analytical point of view, this quarterly market value reality (artificially created demand for some stocks and unwarranted weakness in others) throws almost any individual security or market sector statistic totally out of wack with the underlying company fundamentals. But it gets even more fuzzy, and not in the lovable sense. Just for the fun of it, think about the "demand pull" impact of an ever-growing list of ETFs. I don't think that I'm alone in thinking that the real meaning of security prices has less and less to do with corporate economics than it does with the morning betting line on ETF ponies... the dot-coms of the new millennium. [Do you remember the "Circle of Gold" from the seventies? Isn't GLD, or IAU, about the same thing?]


As if all of these institutional forces weren't enough, you need also consider the impact of tax code motivated transactions during the always-entertaining final quarter of the year. One would never suspect (after watching millions of CPA directed taxpayers gleefully lose billions of dollars) that the purpose of investing is to make money! The net impact of these (euphemistically labeled) "year end tax saving strategies" is pretty much the same as that of the Type One Window Dressing described above. But here's an off-quarter buying opportunity that you really shouldn't pass up. Simply put, get out there and buy the November 52-week lows, wait for the periodic and mysterious "January Effect" to be reported by the media with eyes wide shut amazement, and pocket some easy profits.


There just may not be a method to actually decipher the true value of a share of common stock. Is market price a function of company fundamentals, artificial demand for "derivative" securities, or various forms of Institutional Window Dressing? But this is a condition that can be used to great financial advantage. With security prices less closely related to those old fashioned fundamental issues such as dividends, projected profits, and unfunded pension liabilities and perhaps more closely related to artificial demand factors, the only operational alternative appears to be trading! Buy the downtrodden (but still fundamentally investment grade) issues and take your profits on those that have risen to inappropriately high levels based on basic measures of quality... and try to get it done before the big players do. To over simplify, a recipe for success would involve shopping for investment grade stocks at bargain prices, allowing them to simmer until a reasonable, pre-defined, profit target is reached, and seasoning the portfolio brew with the discipline to actually implement the profit taking plan.


Just call me old fashioned, but I miss the days when there were just stocks and bonds... interesting place Wall Street.



--



Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/relax-a-volatile-stock-market-is-your-dearest-friend.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/relax-a-volatile-stock-market-is-your-dearest-friend.html Fri, 30 Jun 2006 00:00:00 -0500
Looking at scores of similarly profitable, high quality companies in this manner, you would find that: (1) most move up and down regularly (if not predictably) with an upward long-term bias, and (2) that there is little if any similarity in the timing of the movements between the stocks themselves. This is the "Volatility" that most people fear and that Wall Street loves them to fear. It can be narrowly confined to certain sectors, or much broader, encompassing practically everything. The broader it becomes, the more likely it is to be categorized as either a rally or a correction. Most years will feature one or two of each. This is the natural condition of things in the stock market, Mother Nature, Inc. if you will. Don't take her for granted when she gets high, and never ignore her when she feels low. Embrace her volatile moods, work with them in whatever direction they travel, and she will become your love as well!

Ironically, it is this natural volatility (caused by hundreds of variables human, economic, political, natural, etc.) that is the only real "certainty" existent in the financial markets. And, as absurd as this may sound until you experience the reality of it all, it is this one and only certainty that makes Mutual Funds in general (and Index Funds in particular) totally unsuitable as investment vehicles for anyone within seven to ten years of retirement! How many Mutual Fund investors have retired recently with more liquid financial assets than they had seven years ago, way back in 1999? There will always be rallies and corrections. In fact, it is worthwhile to "go back to the future" to establish a realistic Investment Strategy. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the market to significantly higher levels. The DJIA peaked at 2700 before its record 40% crash in 1987. But at 1700, it was still 70% above the 1000 barrier that it danced around with for decades before... always a higher high, rarely a lower low. The '87 debacle was followed by several slightly less exciting corrections, but the case was being made for a more flexible, and realistic, Investment Strategy. Mutual Funds were spawned by a Buy and Hold Mentality; Mother Nature, Inc is a much more complicated enterprise.

Call it foresight, or hindsight if you want to be argumentative, but a long-term view of the Investment Process eliminates the guesswork and points pretty clearly toward a trading mentality that keys on the natural volatility of hundreds of Investment Grade Equities. During corrections, consider these simple truths: 1) although there are more sellers than buyers, the buyers intend to make money on their purchases, 2) so long as everything is down, don't worry so much about the price of individual holdings, 3) fast and steep corrections are better than the slow attrition variety, 4) always accept even half your normal profit target while buying opportunities are plentiful, 5) don't be in a rush to fill your portfolio, but if cash dries up before it's over, you are doing it "correctly".

Most of the problems with Mutual Funds and much of the increased opportunity in Individual Stock trading are functions of growing non-professional Equity ownership. Everyone is in the stock market these days whether they like it or not, and when the media fans the emotions of the masses, the masses create volatility that rarely under-reacts to market conditions! Rarely will unit owners take profits, particularly if they have to pay withdrawal penalties or taxes. Even more unusual are expert advisors who encourage investors to move into the markets when prices are falling.

A volatile market creates opportunities with every gyration, but you have to be willing to transact to reap the benefits. A necessary first step is to recognize that both "up" and "down" markets are forces of nature with abundant potential. The proper attitude toward the latter, will make you much more appreciative of the former. Most investment strategies require answers to unanswerable questions, in an effort to be in the right place at the right time. Indecisiveness doesn't cut it with Mamma... in or out too soon is not an issue with her. But wasting the opportunities she provides really ticks her off! Successful investment strategies require an understanding of the forces of nature, and disciplined rules of portfolio management. If you can transition back to individual securities, you will do better at moving toward your goals, most of the time, because the opportunities are out there... all of the time.

So let's adopt some new rules for this investment game and learn to live with them for a few cycles: Let's buy good stocks new and old at lower prices during corrections. Let's take reasonable profits on those that go up in price, whenever they are kind enough to do so. Let's examine our performance based on the results of these trading transactions alone and at market cycle examination points for a smiley faced change of pace. And one other thing...

Let's drink a toast to Mother Nature, her uncertainty, her volatility, and, of course, to our first loves.


--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com/
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com/
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/in-value-stock-investing-quality-is-job-one.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/in-value-stock-investing-quality-is-job-one.html Mon, 05 Jun 2006 00:00:00 -0500
How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? Will Rogers summed it up: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misread this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the "Buy (anything) High" club. I've found that the "Buy Value Stocks Low (er)" approach works better. A Google search produces a variety of criteria that help to identify Value Stocks, the standards being low Price to Book Value, low P/E ratios, and other "fundamentals". But you would be surprised how the definitions can vary, and how few include the word "Quality". In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known Value Fund Manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as Value Stocks, he was told to change his definition... or else.

How do we create a confidence building Stock Selection Universe? Simply operating on blind faith with one of the common definitions may be too simplistic, particularly since many of the numbers originate from the subject companies. Also, some of the figures may be difficult to obtain quickly, and it is essential not to get bogged down in endless research. Here are five filters you can use to come up with a selection universe of higher quality companies, and you can obtain all of the data inexpensively from the same source:

1. An S & P Rating of B+ or Better. Standard & Poor's is a major financial data provider to the investment community, and its "Earnings and Dividend Rankings for Common Stocks" combine many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the rated companies. Potential market performance (a guessing game anyway) is not a consideration. B+ and above ratings are considered Investment Grade. Anything rated lower adds an element of unnecessary speculation to your portfolio. A staff of thousands does your research for you.

2. A History of Profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is less risky than acquiring shares in an unproven, or start-up entity. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. They are more likely to produce profit opportunities for you quickly.

3. A History of Regular Dividend Payments. The payment of regular dividends, and periodic increases in rate paid, are sure signs of economic viability. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. There is no need to focus on the size of the dividend itself; Equities should not be purchased as income producers. A further benefit of using dividend payment as one of your selection criteria is the clear indication of financial stress that a cut communicates.

4. A Reasonable Price Range. You will find that most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and that only a few trade at levels above $100. If you have a seven-figure portfolio, price may not matter from a diversification standpoint, but in smaller portfolios, a round lot of a $50 stock may be too much to risk in one position. An unusually high price may be caused by an unusually high degree of sector or company specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. With no real structural size limitations, I feel comfortable with a range between $10 and $90 per share... but I would avoid most issues at the higher level.

5. A NYSE Listed Security. I'm not sure that the listing requirements for the NYSE are still more restrictive than elsewhere, but it is helpful to be able to focus on just one set of statistics since most of the information you need regularly is reported by Exchange (Market Stats, Issue Breadth, and New Highs vs. New Lows).


Your Selection Universe will become the backbone of your Equity Investment Program, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established... no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. Now you can focus on operating procedures that will help you diversify properly by position size, industry, etc., and on guidelines that will help you identify which stocks should be watched closely for purchase when the price is right. Keeping in mind that you want to sell each Equity Position at a target profit ASAP, you'll want to establish appropriate buying (and selling) rules. For example, I never consider buying a stock until it has fallen at least 20% from its highest level of the past 52 weeks, so I include those that are close or at this price level on a "Daily Watch List". Then, I select those that I would be willing to add to equity portfolios if they fall a bit more during the trading day. Your actual "Buy List" changes every day in both symbol and limit price.

You will need to apply consistent and disciplined judgment to your final selection process, but you can be confidant that you are choosing from a select group of higher quality, well-established companies, with a proven track record of profitability and owner awareness. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster... and that should help you sleep nights.

By the way, never say no to a profit when the upward movement equals 10%, and you'll be able to do it again, and again, and again.



--


Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-failing-the-average-investor.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-failing-the-average-investor.html Thu, 11 May 2006 00:00:00 -0500
Is the 120-year-old DJIA impotent? No, it's certainly helpful for Peak-to-Peak analysis right now, for example, to see if your Large Cap only Equity Portfolio is as high as it was six years ago. But it's based upon a seriously flawed Buy and Hold investment strategy and universally used as a market barometer, when its original role was as an economic indicator. This is not just semantics. It's Wall Street's rendition of "The Emperor's New Clothes". Possibly, a weighted average of investor perceived business prospects for thirty major companies is a viable economic indicator, but leading or lagging? Clearly, there is no conceivable way that any existing average/index can measure the progress of the thousands of individual securities (and Mutual Funds masquerading as individual securities) that, in the real investment world, are "The Market". And is there just "a" Market, when REITs, Index ETFs, Equity CEFs, Income CEFs, and even some Preferreds are all mixed together in such a way that most brokerage firm statements can't quite distinguish one from the other? Investors are dealing with multiple markets of different types. Markets that don't follow the same rules or respond to the same changes in the same ways. The Dow is dead, long live reality.

Feeling statistically naked? Don't fret Nell, here are a few real market statistics and lists that are easy to understand, easy to put your cursor on, and useful in keeping you up to date on what's going on in the multiple Markets of today's Investment World:

1. Issue Breadth is the single most accurate barometer of what's going on in the markets on a daily basis! Statistics for each of the Stock Exchanges are tracked daily, documenting how many individual issues have advanced versus how many have declined. Rarely are these important numbers reported, especially if they are painting a picture different from that being jammed down investors' throats by institutional propaganda. Would you believe, that in 1999 (when the DJIA and other indices) last achieved All Time High (ATH) levels, monthly Issue Breadth on the NYSE was positive only in April, followed by a 12 month paper bloodbath extending through May of 2000. Since then, Breadth has been positive for six consecutive years. Surprise!

2. Pay close attention to the number of issues hitting New Fifty-Two Week Highs (52Hs) and Lows each day: a) for trend corroboration, and b) to obtain a wealth of important information for daily decision-making and periodic performance understanding. The recent NYSE Bull Market (not a typo) is clearly evidenced by six consecutive years (from 04/00) with more issues hitting new 52Hs than new 52Ls... New Highs nearly tripled New Lows. So much for the standard market tracking tools... not to mention Wall Street manipulation of all the news that's fit to print for investors. Looking at the daily lists of 52Hs and 52Ls will help you determine: a) which sectors are moving in which directions, b) if interest rate expectations are pointing up or down, c) which individual issues are approaching either your Buy or Sell targets and, d) which direction your portfolio Market Value should be moving.

In recent months, REITs, metals, and energy stocks dominated the hot list while regional banks, utilities, and other interest rate sensitive issues were notsos (sic). These lists always indicate what's going on now, without any weighting, charting, or hype, making your job almost simplistic. Take your reasonable profits in the issues that have risen to new peaks (Sell Higher), and purchase the quality issues among those that are at 52Ls (Buy Lower). High prices often reflect high speculation with Bazooka potential, while lower priced value stocks often turn out to be bargains. Ishares, foreign Closed End Funds, Mining and Energy bloat today's 52H List while preferred shares and Utilities occupy the 52Ls... a bit more meaningful than "the Dow is near an All Time High", and a bit scarier as well.

3. Throughout the trading day, periodic review of three lists called "Market Statistics" will keep you current on individual issue price movements, active issues, sector developments, and more. How you interpret and use this information will eventually affect your bottom line, weather you are a Value Stock Investor or a Small Cap day trader. The Most Active and The Most Declined Lists describe individual and group activity, identify where some more detailed research might be appropriate, and provide potential additions to your Daily Stock Watch List. The Most Active and Most Advanced Lists will identify the hottest individual issues and sectors, identify areas where news stories may be worth reading, and instantly make you aware of profit taking opportunities.

I know you are tempted to shout "Blasphemy" at the top of your lungs, but the DJIA was developed in a pre-internet world (actually, pre-automobile) where the statistics discussed above were unavailable, only the wealthy cared about the stock market, there were no Mutual Funds, and, frankly Scarlet, 95% of the population just didn't care. Now here's some blasphemy for you: It is likely that not one person reading this article has an investment portfolio that closely resembles the composition of the DJIA. It is just as likely that nearly everyone reading this article will use the Dow to evaluate portfolio performance. I've never understood this phenomenon, and I know that change takes time... but really, the Dow (and the other averages) have had their day, and far too much of your nest egg, for you to ignore this reality any longer.


--
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"


Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]> http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/ten-common-investment-errors-stocks-bonds-and-management.html http://www.articletrader.com/finance/investing/ten-common-investment-errors-stocks-bonds-and-management.html Fri, 21 Apr 2006 00:00:00 -0500
1. Investment decisions should be made within a clearly defined Investment Plan. Investing is a goal-orientated activity that should include considerations of time, risk-tolerance, and future income… think about where you are going before you start moving in what may be the wrong direction. A well thought out plan will not need frequent adjustments. A well-managed plan will not be susceptible to the addition of trendy, speculations.

2. The distinction between Asset Allocation and Diversification is often clouded. Asset Allocation is the planned division of the portfolio between Equity and Income securities. Diversification is a risk minimization strategy used to assure that the size of individual portfolio positions does not become excessive in terms of various measurements. Neither are "hedges" against anything or Market Timing devices. Neither can be done with Mutual Funds or within a single Mutual Fund. Both are handled most easily using Cost Basis analysis as defined in The Working Capital Model.

3. Investors become bored with their Plan too quickly, change direction too frequently, and make drastic rather than gradual adjustments. Although investing is always referred to as "long term", it is rarely dealt with as such by investors who would be hard pressed to explain simple peak-to-peak analysis. Short-term Market Value movements are routinely compared with various un-portfolio related indices and averages to evaluate performance. There is no index that compares with your portfolio, and calendar divisions have no relationship whatever to market or interest rate cycles.

4. Investors tend to fall in love with securities that rise in price and forget to take profits, particularly when the company was once their employer. It's alarming how often accounting and other professionals refuse to fix these single-issue portfolios. Aside from the love issue, this becomes an unwilling-to-pay-the-taxes problem that often brings the unrealized gain to the Schedule D as a realized loss. Diversification rules, like Mother Nature, must not be messed with.

5. Investors often overdose on information, causing a constant state of "analysis paralysis". Such investors are likely to be confused and tend to become hindsightful and indecisive. Neither portends well for the portfolio. Compounding this issue is the inability to distinguish between research and sales materials... quite often the same document. A somewhat narrow focus on information that supports a logical and well-documented investment strategy will be more productive in the long run. But do avoid future predictors.

6. Investors are constantly in search of a short cut or gimmick that will provide instant success with minimum effort. Consequently, they initiate a feeding frenzy for every new, product and service that the Institutions produce. Their portfolios become a hodgepodge of Mutual Funds, iShares, Index Funds, Partnerships, Penny Stocks, Hedge Funds, Funds of Funds, Commodities, Options, etc. This obsession with Product underlines how Wall Street has made it impossible for financial professionals to survive without them. Remember: Consumers buy products; Investors select securities.

7. Investors just don't understand the nature of Interest Rate Sensitive Securities and can't deal appropriately with changes in Market Value… in either direction. Operationally, the income portion of a portfolio must be looked at separately from the growth portion. A simple assessment of bottom line Market Value for structural and/or directional decision-making is one of the most far-reaching errors that investors make. Fixed Income must not connote Fixed Value and most investors rarely experience the full benefit of this portion of their portfolio.

8. Many investors either ignore or discount the cyclical nature of the investment markets and wind up buying the most popular securities/sectors/funds at their highest ever prices. Illogically, they interpret a current trend in such areas as a new dynamic and tend to overdo their involvement. At the same time, they quickly abandon whatever their previous hot spot happened to be, not realizing that they are creating a Buy High, Sell Low cycle all their own.

9. Many investment errors will involve some form of unrealistic time horizon, or Apples to Oranges form of performance comparison. Somehow, somewhere, the get rich slowly path to investment success has become overgrown and abandoned. Successful portfolio development is rarely a straight up arrow and comparisons with dissimilar products, commodities, or strategies simply produce detours that speed progress away from original portfolio goals.

10. The "cheaper is better" mentality weakens decision making capabilities, leads investors to dangerous assumptions and short cuts that only appear to be effective. Do discount brokers seek "best execution"? Can new issue preferred stocks be purchased without cost? Is a no load fund a freebie? Is a WRAP Account individually managed? When cheap is an investor's primary concern, what he gets will generally be worth the price.

Compounding the problems that investors have managing their investment portfolios is the sideshowesque sensationalism that the media brings to the process. Investing has become a competitive event for service providers and investors alike. This development alone will lead many of you to the self-destructive decision making errors that are described above. Investing is a personal project where individual/family goals and objectives must dictate portfolio structure, management strategy, and performance evaluation techniques. Is it difficult to manage a portfolio in an environment that encourages instant gratification, supports all forms of "uncaveated" speculation, and that rewards short term and shortsighted reports, reactions, and achievements?

Yup, it sure is.


--
Steve Selengut http://www.sancoservices.com http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com Professional Portfolio Management since 1979 Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"

Source: http://www.articletrader.com ]]>