Signs of a Better Economy?

Is the glass half full or half empty? Or maybe that analogy doesn't work in this economy because people really just want to know if we've reached the bottom of this bitter drink of bad banks, busted housing markets and layoffs. The answer seems as hard to come by as a good analogy.

However, the current stock rally started with good banking news last month and that trend seems to be continuing. Wells Fargo & Co. said last week that it expects to post a record profit for the first quarter of 2009. This week will bring reports from other major banks like Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Wells Fargo received $25 billion in government bailout funds, which is less than the other big banks. The bank credits its strong quarter to a roaring mortgage business. The Associated Press reported that "Wells Fargo received about $190 billion in mortgage applications, a 64 percent jump from the previous quarter. More than 40 percent of that volume came in March."

So this looks to be good news for both the banking and housing industry. Though most of the applications were for refinancing, 25 percent is reported to be from customers wanting to purchase new homes. Wells Fargo's CFO, Howard Atkins, told the AP that the government's efforts to lower interest rates and other programs aimed at the beleaguered housing industry has helped. Yet he was reluctant to sound too optimistic. "It's premature to conclude the economy has turned," said Atkins. "All I can tell you is we're seeing a lot of business."

There was mixed news in the job sector last week, with jobless claims falling more than expected, but there are still a record number of people receiving unemployment benefits. According to the AP, both economic analysts and the Federal Reserve expect this trend to continue into year as companies adjust to the changing economy.

Retail sales, on the other hand, showed some signs of stabilizing.
According to the AP, discount retailers, like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., continue to show a modest increase in profits. Although sales have fallen for other retailers, the decrease has been less than expected.
So is the bottom of the bitter drink in sight? "In hard economic times, Americans turn to numbers to see whether things are getting better. Gauging the mood of the republic is not as quantifiable," said AP National Writer Ted Anthony recently.

It's even harder to quantify when the numbers give different stories and no one seems to want to stick his neck out and be the one to announce the end of the recession. While Anthony conceded there are subtle signs that things are getting better, he was only willing to say things could be getting "less worse."

According to Anthony, "Numbers from Gallup's Consumer Mood Index were up 6 points for the week ending April 5, the fourth consecutive week they rose. The index is now as high as it's been in over a year -- buoyed, perhaps, by the upward-creeping stock market. And an AP-GfK poll showed the number of Americans who think the country is heading in the right direction more than doubled between October and February -- to 40 percent. Not that it's all good, mind you. Just, well, less worse."

Ki developed a clearinghouse website of Austin MLS listings. On his site buyers are able to do customizable searches for Austin real estate. His site also has up to date information on mortgage rates.