How To Use Race Analysis to Spot Winning Racehorses. Part 3

Pedigree, Speed and Stamina.

Pedigree and Potential

The facts about pedigree relate largely to stallions - the males.

Many of the best stallions can sire up to 100 horses in a lifetime.

Pedigree can suggest a lot about young horses in respect of their temperament, their preference for a particular going and distance, and their overall enthusiasm.

As always with racing, breeding is an inexact science.

The quality of the race determines how relevant pedigree becomes. With higher quality racing the results are more intrinsically linked with the pedigree of a horse.

As with anything as random as genetics, it is not possible to say 100% which traits will be inherited from the sire or which from the dam. Or indeed whether anything will be inherited at all.

The study of pedigree however is being moved on by science with geneticists now able to examine a thoroughbreds genetic profile and actually determine which genes have been inherited from dam or sire.

Whatever the ins and outs it is absolutely 100% definite that racing talent is inheritable.

Can a system be devised that will profit from pedigree study and knowledge?

Very few racing systems are infallible so the answer is probably not however pedigree is definitely a factor that can be used to spot young potential winners ahead of the crowd.

Average winning distance - stamina

The RacingPost publishes average winning distances for the offspring of sires. It is known as the stamina index and is used for 2 and 3 year old maidens. It can be found in the form section.

Initially there is no way of telling whether a horse has inherited its stamina from the sire or the dam. But by examining the average winning distance for all horses by 1 particular sire we can say whether a horse is average for that particular sire, or below average.

Advanced stamina index - dosage system

The dosage system reduces possible influences in pedigree from all sires to a select few known as "Chefs de Race".

The sires are categorized based on the type of runners they produce.

The categories are:

• Brilliant.
• Intermediate.
• Classic.
• Solid.
• Professional.

These categories cover the full gradient of racing in terms of speed vs. stamina. i.e. from sprints to 3 mile chases.

The pedigree experts have analyzed and selected the sires which have had the greatest influence over a long period of time.

The dosage calculations are separated into 3 categories - dosage profile, dosage index, and center of distribution.

To calculate the dosage profile the previous 4 generations of sires are examined and if they contain a Chef de Race then points are awarded depending on which subsequent generation the horse is in.

The dosage index and center of distribution are another calculation of speed and stamina, with higher numbers indicating more speed and lower numbers indicating more stamina.

You can investigate dosage information online:

http://www.PedigreeQuery.com
http://www.chef-de-race.com

Steven Roman of chef-de-race.com is recognized as a true pioneer in collecting and analyzing dosage data.

Obviously the sire statistics change over time and you will need to review them season by season.

Early maturity and intelligence

Another inherited genetic quality is early maturity and intelligence in young horses from particular sires.

A horse displaying these qualities will often be trained with a view to competing in early 2 year old sprints, often with winning results.

Horses from late maturing sires will often be trained more intensively in their 3rd year.

Northern Dancer line sires

In Europe the main lines from Northern Dancer include Sadler's Wells, Danzig, Nijinsky, Nureyev.

There are so many and they are so influential that they deserve mention in any literature about pedigree.

The Derby

The Derby is the perfect race to apply pedigree analysis and the dosage index.

The Derby field is made entirely of class horses facing Group 1 competition over a mile and a half for the first time.

Stamina and speed are both important in winning the Derby meaning high points are required in both brilliant and intermediate categories in the dosage profile.

In the final part of this series we look at the benefits of paddock watching and how to visually examine a racehorse to spot a potential winner in advance of the media and the crowds.

Bet Fair and Bet Well.

Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader, and a Betfair Trader and Advisor. Guaranteed! Professional, Profitable Betfair Secrets and Advanced Horse Racing Strategies at http://www.Betfair Trade.com/