How To Use Race Analysis to Spot Winning Racehorses. Part 4.

The Rules and Potential of Successful Paddock Watching.

Paddock watching

You can read the Racing Post till you are blue in the face, but to consistently select winners it helps enormously to physically see your horse in the paddock before the race.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and again paddock watching is largely a matter of subjective opinion.

In my experience:

• Larger framed animals perform better when asked to carry weight.

• Good sold girth usually means a strong heart.

• Particularly useful to examine in the paddock is the way a horse holds its head and neck.

• The ears are particularly important and should either be pricked up or flat before the race.

Where horses have little or no form to analyze, the paddock is the only place that you can genuinely assess a 2 year olds fitness and potential.

Look specifically for the following signs:

• Muscle definition of the horses hindquarters and neck.

• The horse should not look fat around the belly.

• A clear outline of the horses ribs and a strong crease down its hind quarters that indicates extensive training.

• Horses that are particularly noisy usually do not focus well on the race, whereas those who are calm usually perform better.

• Horses in the paddock should be alert, enthusiastic and bouncy. These are all positive traits.

• If a horse is edgy, looks disturbed and is sweating profusely, then this usually means that the horse is not in the mood for racing.

• Examine the rhythm of the horse walking in the paddock and the way it trots and gallops. Specifically watch where it puts its feet - is it a good walker?
The horses coat

Just as you can tell a human beings health from its skin so you should examine closely the horses coat.

The coat should be gleaming and you should assess the quality of the coat on a sliding scale.

Hormonal changes are often responsible for changes in the coat of horses of both sexes. When hormonal changes settle the horse will run more genuinely.

Sweating

Profuse sweating around a horses body is a bad sign. If a horse warms up and does not sweat at all then similarly this is a bad sign.

Movement to the post

The way a horse expresses itself going down to post is also a good indicator.

The movement should be fluid with toes pointed low if the ground is good or fast and the horse is well suited.

Easier ground will be suited more to horses with a round knee action.

If a horse changes its lead leg on the way to post this is a bad sign that he is uncomfortable.

Ground rules

Ground conditions are a crucial aspect of assessing a racehorse's prospects on any given day.

If you can get information directly before the race from a course walker this can often be invaluable compared with the early indications advertised on line.

Most flat courses are regularly watered but certain areas of the course get more water than others.

Over time this can result in unevenness of the course which is particularly relevant when assessing short sprints on straight sections of a course.

Draw Bias

Depending on which side of the course the horse is drawn draw bias can have a tremendous effect on results.

Different parts of the course will often vary between firm and soft due to soil type and drainage.

The racecourses themselves cover a massive total area and cannot be expected to be even with equal ground conditions all round the course. Unless they are All Weather that is.

As well as ground conditions compaction of certain sections of course is inevitable.

Sections of these courses have been pounded and battered by horses and other machinery over many decades.

Sections of the Epson sprint course Chester, Windsor, Newmarket, Sandown and Beverly are all well known for draw bias.

Add in ever increasing rainfall and the ground will get cut up even more easily.

In this series i hope to have advised on 3 aspects regarding how to assess potential and improvement particularly for young horses.

Your aim should be to make winning selections where the odds at S.P are higher than the true probability of the horse winning.

As i explained this is the only way to achieve long-term profits whatever your horse racing system or betting strategy.

Bet Fair and Bet Well.

Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader (Spreads and Finance), and a Betfair Trader and Advisor.Don't Waste Your Money, Bet Sensibly. Professional, Profitable Horse Racing Strategies at http://www.Betfair-Trade.com