Know the Odds, Money Line and Spread for Winning Sports picks

As a sports bettor, you need to be able to compare what you believe is the likelihood of any outcome to the odds available. This is the essence of handicapping. When posted odds give you the advantage, those are good sports picks and bets you want to make. This occurs whenever you believe the odds you receive for your baseball picks, basketball picks or football picks are higher than the probability of your bet succeeding.

Here's a simple example. You believe sports Team A is twice as good as Team B. That is equivalent to odds of 2 to 1 on Team B. If the posted odds are higher than that, say 3 to 1 or more, Team B is a good pick. But what if the odds are 3 to 2? That's lower than 2 to 1, so Team A becomes the good pick.

Odds such as these are called "fractional odds," and they are sometimes expressed as fractions, like 2/1, or ratios, such as 2:1. Either way, it means you would receive two dollars in winnings for every one dollar risked. Odds of 6/5 means you win six bucks for every five dollars wagered. Odds on heavy favorites often result in tiny payoffs. Odds of 2:5, for example, mean you have to risk $5 to win $2, not a good pick if you believe the favorite is only twice as good as the underdog, whether you are playing football picks, basketball picks or baseball picks.

Another way of expressing odds is called the "money line," which is much more common than fractions in betting on sports picks. When two teams are evenly matched, the money line is said to be 100. It's the same as 1:1 odds, or a dollar won for each dollar bet. A money line of +200 would be the same as 2:1, or two dollars in profit for each dollar wagered.

Money line odds can also be negative. That tells you how much you need to risk to win a dollar, so a money line of -200 is the same as 1:2 odds. You would have to put up two dollars for every dollar you want to win. This applies to all kinds of sports picks, including basketball picks, baseball picks and football picks.

Sports books do their best to predict outcomes and give fair odds, but you must be aware that they do not offer "true odds." If Team A is the favorite at -110, then true odds for the opposing Team B would be +110; opposing bets would cancel each other out. But the bookmakers need to ensure a profit for themselves, so they build into the odds a margin called vigorish, or "juice." That means instead of offering true odds, they shift the line a few points to either +105 for Team B or -115 for Team A. Now, instead of cancelling each other out, the new line guarantees the book will earn a nickel in profit no matter which baseball picks, football picks or basketball picks win, as long as betting is equal on both sides.

When you see big differences between true odds and posted odds, look for opportunity. It may mean the house is artificially trying to "balance its book," covering heavy bets on one side by trying to attract more bets on the other, or else discouraging additional betting on the top choice.

One other factor you need to be aware of is the spread. Losing teams can win you a lot of money if you know how to make the right sports picks. Bookmakers calculate not only which teams will win, but by what margin. If Team A is a six-point favorite in a game, you can bet on opposing Team B +6.0 and you will win your bet if Team B loses by no more than 5 points.

Spreads are often expressed with half points added on, to eliminate the possibility of ties. If you pick Team A -6.5, you will be a winner only if they "cover the spread" by a winning margin of 7 points or more. The spread is frequently combined with the money line, again to give the house its margin against baseball picks, basketball picks and football picks.

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